Why Senate Republicans Can't Halt Trump’s Nomination Before the Election

The upcoming election in the United States is shaping up to be a critical moment for the confirmation of the next Supreme Court justice. President Trump, aiming to appoint a conservative justice to the court, faces opposition primarily within his own party in the Senate. There are voices suggesting that a small group of vulnerable Republicans, such as Susan Collins and Cory Gardner, have the power to block this nomination. However, this is highly improbable, and more likely is the scenario that either Mitch McConnell will facilitate the confirmation or the Democrats will use the election results to exert further pressure.

Analysing the Potential Obstacles

Senators like Susan Collins of Maine and Cory Gardner of Colorado are indeed potential obstacles, as they have voted against Trump in the past and are considered unpredictable. However, even if they do resist the nomination, it is unlikely that their actions will be enough to halt the process. Susan Collins in particular has been criticized for her perceived complicity in Republican policies and has been referred to as a 'senile old brain dead moron' by some, suggesting her standing is questionable on both policy and public opinion.

The Role of Democratic-Championed Stalemate

Another potential scenario is the emergence of a backdoor deal between Democratic senators and Mitch McConnell, the majority leader. Democrats could essentially trade away the Trump nominee, thus ensuring the nominee will not receive confirmation through a 49-51 vote. In return, Democrats might agree to not expand the Supreme Court following the upcoming election, which is likely to result in a major blowout for Republicans. This strategy seems more feasible given the political landscape post-election.

Wait and See Approach

It is also conceivable that President Trump himself might delay the nomination until after the election, citing the need for a second term to ensure a more favorable Supreme Court justice. This strategy, however, is unlikely to succeed due to the political risks involved in such a delay, especially with the imminent lame-duck session.

Consequences for Both Sides

For Mitch McConnell, scheduling a vote without ensuring the necessary votes is risking political fallout. He can only grant a temporary pass to two senators, and in the scenario of a 50-50 tie, the decision would fall on Vice President Pence. This potential outcome is not favorable and might jeopardize the Trumpian agenda. Furthermore, adding a vote that could be lost to the floor could spell the end of the current political strategy.

A substantial electoral victory by Democrats in 2020 could provide the necessary leverage to execute their strategy of 'shock and awe,' effectively blocking the nomination. For Democrats, waiting and seeing is a calculated risk, as it leverages the political environment created by an election blowout to their advantage.

Conclusion

The nomination of a Supreme Court justice is a pivotal moment in American politics, and the role of Senate Republicans in this process is likely to remain minimal. Whether through strategic deals, political delays, or post-election victories, the outcome is more likely to be shaped by larger political forces than by individual senator actions. Critics may seek to hold individual Republicans accountable, but the broader context of post-election politics will ultimately determine the fate of the nomination.